Title: Migration Waves and Political Tides: European Guest Worker Routes and Electoral Outcomes
This paper is a joint work with Ricardo Piqué (University of Pennsylvania)
Abstract: "How does temporary exposure to migration affect political beliefs in the long run? We study the case of the transit of "guest workers" from Turkey to northern Europe. In the Austrian states of Styria and Salzburg, municipalities along the former European route E5 were exposed to this massive flow of migrant workers since the late 1960s, while others were not. Exposure to migrants passing through municipalities adjacent to the "guest worker" route increased the center-right vote in national elections by about 2-4 percentage points, corresponding to a loss of votes for the center-left. This result is qualitatively confirmed in local elections. Crucially, the effect seems to increase once migration becomes a salient political issue, demonstrating that changes in political beliefs can persist and be "activated" years after the initial exposure."