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How will natural gas markets adapt to the new climate and geopolitical realities?
Demand reductions in Europe and mature markets in Asia softened the impact of the gas supply shock of 2022. Prices came down significantly in 2023, although they remained well above their historical averages, both in Asia and Europe. Natural gas markets are expected to see a return to strong growth in 2024, primarily driven by the industrial and power sectors in fast-growing economies in Asia and gas-rich countries in Africa and the Middle East.
Nevertheless, a lot of factors are making the future outlook for the natural gas industry more complex:
- the impact of the continued expansion of renewables and possible nuclear renaissance in certain countries on the demand for gas-fired power generation in mature markets;
- the effects of “black swans” - geopolitical tensions, rising shipping constraints, LNG project delays and adverse weather conditions;
- the need to strengthen international cooperation to ensure the security of supply for natural gas, including assessing and implementing flexibility options along gas and LNG value chains.
What insights could be inferred from observed developments about broader tendencies of natural gas markets evolution until the end of the decade?
Information about speaker:
Gergely MOLNAR joined the International Energy Agency in August 2018, as a Gas Analyst in the Gas, Coal and Power Markets Division within the Directorate of Energy Markets and Security. The Division is responsible for the development of short- and medium-term market forecasts, and the publication of the Global Gas Security Review. Before joining the Agency, he held several positions in consulting and private research companies with a focus on European gas markets and gas infrastructure.
Gergely holds a Master in International Energy from the Paris Institute of Political Sciences and graduated in International Affairs from the Corvinus University of Budapest.
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