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Summary of the dissertation:
Climate change mitigation requires a significant political acceleration in energy transitions, where fossil fuels must be replaced by low-carbon technologies within the next decades. Are there historical precedents for such acceleration? Are recent transitions faster with climate policies? Existing studies do not answer these questions due to their analysis being too broad looking at global transitions, or too narrow focusing on granular changes in specific countries.
Against this backdrop, this dissertation develops a middle-range methodology to systematically categorise, trace, and compare energy transitions across countries and time-periods. I apply this approach to analyse electricity transitions in the G7 and the EU, where political acceleration is expected. This historical analysis is further compared with the required transitions for 1.5°C to elucidate their challenges.
I find that, throughout the last six decades, electricity transitions in these countries have been primarily driven by the changes in electricity demand where climate policies have not accelerated the developments. Moreover, none of these countries have yet empirically demonstrated or even planned the rates of acceleration necessary to achieve 1.5°C. In other words, there has been no ‘successful’ case of transitions comparable with the magnitude of acceleration required. Meeting 1.5°C, therefore, requires radically different energy transitions with an unprecedented level of political acceleration.
The middle-range approach developed in this dissertation can be applied to track future progress in the G7 and the EU and analyse other sectors and countries. Taking stock of empirical evidence and advancing discussions on what then needs to be done is more warranted.
Defense committee:
Supervisor: Dr. Aleh Cherp, Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, CEU
Internal Member: Dr. Michael LaBelle, Department of Environmental Sciences and Policy, CEU
External Member: Dr. Takeshi Kuramochi, Senior climate policy researcher, NewClimate Institute, Cologne, Germany
Opponent:
Dr. Fredrik Hedenus, Professor of Sustainability and Systems Analysis and Physical Resource Theory at Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden
Chair:
Dr. Florian Weiler, Public Policy Department, CEU